From Superpower to Rogue State: The Implications of the US Seizure of Venezuela's Maduro
Within the considerable disarray following the US strikes on Venezuela, the capture of leader Nicolás Maduro, and Donald Trump's announcement that the US will “control” the country and “reclaim the petroleum resources”, a single fact remains evident – these actions create a deeply alarming precedent.
Past Interference and a New Threshold Crossed
The United States has a grim history of interference, invasion and occupation in Latin America, but this past Saturday morning witnessed its premier large-scale offensive on the soil of a South American nation. “The preeminence of America in this region is now beyond dispute,” Trump proclaimed.
The move to assault another sovereign country and seize its president – only a few days after he publicly sought an off-ramp – has still wider repercussions. This ought to concern everyone.
A Nation Left in Limbo
Venezuelans have suffered under an oppressive, corrupt, and inept government under Mr Maduro, commonly thought to have fraudulently won the most recent election. They now face extreme instability in the best case. Mr Trump has indicated that the vice president, Delcy Rodríguez would comply with American demands, and dismissed rightwing opposition leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a credible successor.
However, Ms Rodríguez, now the temporary head of state, has so far adopted a posture of resistance – and other elements of the decapitated regime are even more hardline.
From Global Policeman to International Outlaw
A man who won power pledging to stop foreign wars now says he is “unconcerned about deploying troops”. Redesignating the Department of Defense as the Department of War was not merely symbolic. He fails to perceive the world’s superpower as a global policeman; he is converting it into a lawless actor.
He holds the view that the America's power permits it to do as it wishes with little consequence: observe the military actions against Nigeria and Iranian installations. He asserts that control of Venezuela's petroleum means this latest episode “won’t cost us a penny”.
A Move Devoid of International Legitimacy
George W. Bush invaded Iraq on a lie. But this unlawful assault came without UN resolutions of any kind or the consent of the US Congress; key legislators received no advance notice and say they were deliberately deceived in briefings. Mr Trump aims not merely to stretch international norms, but to obliterate them.
Disregard the implication this carries to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and others, and ask where the US itself is heading. While the raid reportedly killed 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, not a single US soldier was lost. Mr Trump’s escalating feeling of being untouchable will likely encourage additional military gambits.
Flimsy Justifications and Underlying Drivers
No one buys the excuse that this is about drugs. Venezuela is only a small transit route for cocaine; Mr Trump recently granted clemency to the ex-leader of Honduras Juan Orlando Hernández for drugs and weapons crimes. Mr Trump himself made it clear that he is driven by the promise of energy wealth as well as a desire to project strength, the worldview of key officials, and the appetite for triumphalism as domestic popularity wanes.
World Leaders' Silence and a Weakened UN
The worldwide reception, especially in Europe, has – with notable outliers – been alarmingly quiet. That’s not due to Mr Maduro’s sins, but trepidation regarding Mr Trump’s wrath. The strong reaction from UN Secretary General António Guterres was notable, but this episode underscores the UN's diminishing clout.
Mr Trump’s anti-interventionist domestic base could yet press him to turn attention back home – but soaring healthcare premiums, financial discontent and distracting files increase his appetite for distraction.
Barely 12 months into his presidential term. World leaders may live to repent if they stay silent now, given what – and who – could be next.
