Starmer's Allies Begin 'Block Andy Burnham' Campaign to Block Mayor's Commons Comeback

Close associates of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly started a coordinated initiative to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a return to the House of Commons. This action comes after the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has triggered an impending byelection.

Major Obstacles in the Candidate Selection Process

A number of members on the Labour Party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly suggested it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection procedure. This is primarily due to the sizable number of Starmer loyalists on the body who are desperate to avert any future leadership challenge.

The Labour hierarchy is said to have swung into action following the revelation of the MP's intended resignation, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the considerable expense and political risk of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Previously, he prompted outrage in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that many MPs had urged him to stand for the party leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to potentially contest the Labour leadership if a contest to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, supporters of the Mayor have warned against overstating the level of any planning, suggesting he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would only return national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Political Landscape and Public Approval

Amid opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole prominent Labour figure with consistently positive ratings with the public.

Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then win the by-election against challenges from Reform UK and independent candidates, all before any possible bid for the leadership.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

High-ranking Labour sources have said that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already in progress, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself said that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to cease discussion of possible leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

NEC members have allegedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.

A number of sources also expressed fears about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.

Union Influence and Procedural Fears

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. It is also possible the committee could impose an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.

However, a supporter warned against assuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.

The trade unions occupy a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now keeping their counsel, insiders indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The constituency in question holds a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform is expected to launch a strong campaign, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.

If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the parliamentary party.

The resigning MP confirmed he was stepping down due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He is also subject to a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his membership in an offensive online group.